Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
